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No state by state analysis for me, there are only two possible outcomes as far as I can tell. 1) The election follows current polling trends relatively closely and Obama wins by a decisive (though not exactly large) margin. Or 2) the Republicans can disenfranchise groups likely to vote Democrat through voter ID laws, ballot shortages, or what-have-you, and enough Republicans are energized and able to get to the polls that Romney wins by a small margin. The aftermath of which drags on for weeks or months in the courts until the establishment decides it's time to get past the petty partisanship and support our new president Romney.