I keep hearing about the islands China and Japan are arguing over and I keep hearing how they are talking more and more aggressively to each other but after globalization how likely are they to go to something like a limited war or even engage each other militarily? I remember not too long back after the sinking of that boat the media kept talking how the Korean War was going to heat back up so can someone break it down for me, is this just more media sensationalism or does this have a chance of actually happening?
IMO it's unlikely that something will happen in the near term. However, you can never rule something like that out. Both China and Japan have their own domestic problems, and sabre-rattling is often used as a remedy for domestic discontent. The Chinese have a deep-seated animosity for the Japanese due to what the Japanese did to them before and during WWII (the atrocities commited by the Japanese equal, if not exceed, Hitler's treatment of the Jews). Not to say that every Chinese hates the Japanese, but there is a powerful feeling that the Chinese have never had their payback. My wife is Chinese, and she related to me that in 1999 when the U.S. 'accidentally' bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, protesters not only flocked to the US embassy in Beijing, but eventually gathered around and threw stones at the Japanese embassy as well. Japan is a default target for Chinese anger. Japan has what looks to be an irretractable debt problem, and China has a fast-growing upper/middle class that is looking for more freedom, and a lower class that is becoming disillusioned with the promise of Capitalism lifting all boats. I also think that China will enter a recession within the next decade. I wouldn't put it past either government to ratchet up tensions to a trigger level in order to secure their power, especially the CCP. I would be surprised if this isn't part of the reason why the US is strategically shifting military focus to the region.