Facebook will fail first, in my opinion. They're not very diverse. In my life, it wouldn't effect me at all if Apple disappeared. But all biases aside, I think if Facebook ceased to exist, life would carry on almost exactly as it did before. If Apple or Google went away, there would be some more serious consequences. I don't think Google or Apple will fail. I think Google has a solid long-term game, and while they have their hands in literally everything on the internet, they are getting into more "IRL" things, like self driving cars, being an ISP, etc. I think Apple will eventually end up like Microsoft, making products that are still relevant, but are no longer cool. Who will take their place is anyone's guess.
Completely agree. Facebook does something that is easily replicable, they've just managed to market themselves better than anybody else. But even that is starting to fail them as people are beginning to turn against the behemoth that is Facebook. Meanwhile, Google has amassed so much positive public relations with their self driving cars, fiber optic work, and being against SOPA/PIPA, that it's not even funny. Combine that with the practical and diverse nature of everything they have a part in, and you have a very, very solid company. Apple will probably always be Apple, they too rely heavily on marketing, which will run out at some point. They will also have a bit of a tough time as more people switch operating systems and move to Linux (I hope this happens).
I agree that Facebook will be the first to lose dominance. When you don't build something material, the reputation you have and the service you provide is doubly important. Going public created a huge appetite for profit, and there are so many ways that satisfying that appetite runs counter to their reputation and the quality of their service. It's already become a cliché to hate FB but use it because everyone is there.
Facebook goes first but takes a while. All it takes is for the younger generations of users to perfer a new bleeding edge service and stick with it, then Facebook dwindles. Once another service hits critical mass of users with a critical mass of their personal network on it, that is the nail in the coffin. Apple is next if they go. I don't think they will fail, they just can't sustain their meteoric expansion. I don't even think that they will slide into some 'uncool Miscrosoft-type status'. Apple's entire pedigree is of design. It's in their DNA. I think they will continue to execute well making high end, high margin, fantastic devices, but their market share will recede eventually, ceding to low end devices that have a good user experience. Apple's "fall" will be more for investors than anybody else. I guess eventually I could see them succumb by a technological paradigm shift that just quickly destroys the market for an entire section of their portfolio. I don't see it terribly soon though, but when computing continues to shrink and become voice based and AI driven, there will eventually be nothing of substance to design potentially, right? What then? Google is the winner. They are big data. Google Fiber is transforming big data infrastructure. AI, self driving cars, wearable computing with Google Glass. Whatever you think of them, they are a transformative company that is going to own the long game.
I feel like comparing Rome, Great Britain, and Spain to Facebook, Apple, and Google is like comparing to apples and oranges. They have nothing in common other than the fact that they're big. The empires fell because they're trying to force a common lifestyle over a large group of people. When you try ruling over people against their will, then the resistance from the people eventually leads to the collapse of the empire (I'm oversimplifying, but still...).
Google, Facebook, and Apple, on the other hand, don't try to force anything on anyone. They offer a service, and people decide to use it. The comparison to Ford, Microsoft, and Kodak is perhaps more apt, but really only works well when compared to Apple. Ford stopped being a superpower because so much competition arose in the auto industry. I think in the end, Apple will face a similar situation. Facebook, Google, and Amazon, however, are completely different than anything the article has discussed. All three of them are based pretty much completely on the internet. I think that creates a completely different dynamic that we probably don't actually know too much about because the internet hasn't really been around that long (relatively). I don't think Google or Amazon will be falling any time soon. Survival on the internet seems to depend on adaptability to meet the needs of the consumers, and both Google and Amazon seem very adept at keeping up with what we need. Both provide a rather large range of services, and they also do it extremely well. Unless a company can be more all-encompassing and perform better than Amazon or Google, then people won't want to switch. That being said, I do think Facebook will be the first to go. It only does social media - Amazon and Google on the other hand both have their fingers in a ton of pies. Facebook provides only one service, and not particularly well anymore. I think the primary reason people still use it is because everyone's on it. Why switch to a different social media network when nobody else has yet?
the answer is in written inside Solomon's ring.
גם זה יעבור not written there is that facebook will go first on the scandal of selling advertising based on false numbers because of all the fake accounts.
I used it as a euphemism for actual crime. If I sell advertising based on unique eye views and two thirds of those eyes are not unique then I am stealing or committing fraud.
I don't think Google will go anywhere anytime soon. They have there hands in soooo many things. Probably be around my entire lifetime. They are too big to be baught, and too diversified to fail. They have the search engine, a monopoly on online advertising structures, email, google docs, Google+ which will grow as the afformentioned Facebook fails. And that's JUST their web stuff. In addition to that they have the self driving car program, they have the leading phone OS, are working on a Desktop OS, are working on hardware, have hardware hosting technologies coming, Fiber ISP services coming, VOIP phone service coming, etc. They are spreading out across all kinds of technologies and sectors, that unless we run out of electricity I don't see them going anywhere. Facebook is only still around because that's where everyone is at. But eventually everyone will go somewhere else. They will last only as long as the fad lasts, and eventually people will leave for another service, or they will get bought out by someone bigger... maybe Google. Lol. Their stock price reflects that they can't capitalize on revenue and aren't going to hold those inflated share prices aloft. Apple? That's anyones guess. Without Jobs around anymore, it's hard to say where that company will go. If they don't diversify I think they might get left behind. Right now there market is flashy gadgets, and premium versions of things that tons of other companies makes. What I mean is, they aren't the first to make anything, but they make a very slick, streamlined, and luxury version of it. The iPad, the iPhone, etc. But it's mostly marketing and their OS/iOS that is keeping them afloat. There really isn't anything stunning they are doing that you can't do with another cheaper product. Not trying to start a flame ware, but that's just the way it is. Apple products charge a premium for their gadgets. I see them being around for awhile as long as somone else doesn't go after their market share, which really isn't happening right now. But who knows, without Jobs that company might run itself into the ground.
I agree with the Facebook and Apple analogies. Any brand that relies on being 'cool' is always at risk from the next big thing. However, I think Google and Ford are at opposite ends of the business spectrum. Ford's success was based on standardised products to keep costs low and generate volume sales. Their Japanese competitors innovated, diversified, offered choice and developed a more efficient manufacturing process. Ford stuck with a standard product in a single market and suffered as a result. Google, on the other hand, is always attempting to innovate, enter and even create new markets. I think the question for Google is whether their pace of innovation is sustainable.
Ya that is a good point. To be honest, I don't think it is inevitable that all of those companies will fall. But I think it is inevitable that their hegemony will be challenged. Of course, it is already obvious that Facebook's hegemony is being challeneged. And even Samsung is destabilizing Apple's hegemony in the smart phone market. Google and Amazon seem safe at the moment. But change happens so quickly that I wonder if I'll be able to say that in 2015 or 2020.
It's insane how much change we've seen in the past 13 years. I often wonder if it will slow down soon or whether we will maintain this crazy amount of progress and change. I think google is getting close to being capable of dying, but still not at that stage. I too wonder what 2015-2030 will look like.
Amazon relies on insane volume to make up for insanely low margin. They are just one administration away from investigation for anti-competitive pricing where they sell at break even or loss to undercut brick and mortar. Not saying it will happen, but there could be a regulatory pushback someday in the future depending on how their online model warps economies and how much of it they dominate. I think their biggest threat is from a paranoid regulatory response some time in the future. But they also have their hands in cloud services and other technologies, so it's actually more complicated than that. Amazon has demonstrated an amazing capacity for transformation when you look at what they started out as. Pretty impressive.Amazon -> ??? (I can't think of a very relevant comparison)