Do you agree with the points? (Side note, I had a look through the rest of the blog, it seems really interesting)
Very interesting. I've wanted to write a critique but I lack technical background that this author seems to have. His reasoning isn't always perfect but it is a much needed message with so many people echoing his story without any hesitation.
Am I incorrect in stating that Elon musk announced the Hyperloop the way he did, because it is far from complete and he wanted to get a dialogue going around the potential. Essentially by tapping into our collective abilities as engineers, physicists and capable "tinkerers" we can hash out the unknowns. I was never under the impression that this was it. Far from it.
It could very well be the underlying reasoning, but if that was his goal he did not make it clear at all. He presented it like he found the solution to transportation and wanted to show the world how great his idea is, which was copied by the mainstream media as 'This guy fixes all the problems for less money!' which I despise.
See my response to tng below: http://hubski.com/pub?id=96921
This is an interesting case of perspectives, when I read his announcement from his blog, I didn't get the impression that he found the solution at all. I don't think you can fault someone for how the media portrays them. As for the Hyperloop, it may very well be a giant dud or it may drive the conversation and the science/engineering in a new direction tangential to the hyperloop all together. I think kdelwat is right, it's meant to get people talking. Hell, prior to the announcement he all but said that he'd have nothing to do with the building of it should it come to fruition. He's just spitballing ideas with the world. I dig that. Open source everything. But you are right that the media and people in general want to make him the second coming. To that I say, GREAT. I would much rather the media be gushing over a guy that genuinely wants to solve large problems via science and technology than say... a Kardashian.
I read an article - can't find it now, although I thought I saw it here on hubski - that said exactly that - this is not Musk flexing or tipping his hat on something is working on - he's saying here's a seed. And if some people want to take this initial idea and foster it, care for it and make it grow, go for it.He's just spitballing ideas with the world. I dig that. Open source everything.
Exactly. I find it hard to ascribe false motives when he's said that none of his organizations will be building it or working on it.
It might have been the way this was hyped, but I got the impression Musk presented this as a full blown alternative to the high speed rail link between the two cities. I think the author of this article agrees, otherwise he woudn't be criticizing the details of the plan so much. If it was just to throw an idea out there, why did he do all the engineering stuff himself and not let someone else do it? Besides, I disagree on your last point: ofcourse I prefer this above the Kardashians, but I prefer proper journalism above all. It's less terrible for sure, but that doesn't mean it is great.
He presents it as a potential alternative which needs a lot of work. His overarching point seems to be that if we are to throw this much money at a solution, shouldn't we consider all potential solutions? I tend to agree. Here is the PDF of his announcement. This bit gets to his motivation for presenting it, which seems to be what you are questioning:The underlying motive for a statewide mass transit system is a good one. It would be great to have an alternative to flying or driving, but obviously only if it is actually better than flying or driving. The train in question would be both slower, more expensive to operate (if unsubsidized) and less safe by two orders of magnitude than flying, so why would anyone use it?
If we are to make a massive investment in a new transportation system, then the return should by rights be equally massive. Compared to the alternatives, it should ideally be:
Safer
Faster
Lower cost
More convenient
Immune to weather
Sustainably self-powering
Resistant to Earthquakes
Not disruptive to those along the route
Is there truly a new mode of transport – a fifth mode after planes, trains, cars and boats – that meets those criteria and is practical to implement? Many ideas for a system with most of those properties have been proposed and should be acknowledged, reaching as far back as Robert Goddard’s to proposals in recent decades by the Rand Corporation and ET3.
Unfortunately, none of these have panned out. As things stand today, there is not even a short distance demonstration system operating in test pilot mode anywhere in the world, let alone something that is robust enough for public transit. They all possess, it would seem, one or more fatal flaws that prevent them from coming to fruition.
Constraining the Problem
The Hyperloop (or something similar) is, in my opinion, the right solution for the specific case of high traffic city pairs that are less than about 1500 km or 900 miles apart. Around that inflection point, I suspect that supersonic air travel ends up being faster and cheaper. With a high enough altitude and the right geometry, the sonic boom noise on the ground would be no louder than current airliners, so that isn’t a showstopper. Also, a quiet supersonic plane immediately solves every long distance city pair without the need for a vast new worldwide infrastructure.
I think it's an attempt to get more people talking about transport in general. Most people hear "train from LA to SF" and switch off. But if it's a "superfast air tube that shoots you from LA to SF in a pod!", people become interested fast. Then you can introduce the idea of trains or other services as alternatives. Releasing it at an early stage like this is also a good way to get the government to consider it properly. Once you start getting the general public excited about a transportation system, they're going to sit up and take notice.
My annoyance with the whole affair is that Elon Musk, entrepreneur, has been able to take cutting edge technologies, sprinkle them with money and further their development. I know guys at SpaceX. Before they were at SpaceX they were at competing rocket companies, and before they were at competing rocket companies they were both at NASA. I don't know anybody at Tesla but I used to build electric cars and what Tesla is doing is evolutionary, not revolutionary. This "hyperloop" thing, though, is weapons-grade WTFery that can be solved by inspection: "We're going to create hard vacuum underneath the California desert and hurl people down it like bank tubes at 1200mph." My ass you are. If Elon Musk were Howard Hughes and Hyperloop was the Spruce Goose, this would be the equivalent of a rich recluse saying he was going to make a nuclear-powered flying boat out of leather and whalebone that would carry divisions of troops to Europe via orbital transection. It's so far out there in the land of "it's not that we haven't tried this, it's that we know it's fucking impossible" that I've been annoyed by the press it's getting. Remember back when the Segway was "ginger?" OMFG greatest thing EVAR #supadope #revolutionary? And then we get a sideways scooter that needs a Celeron to stay vertical? Yeah, like that, only at 1200mph involving hard vacuum and thousand-mile holes in the desert.
As for him taking cutting edge technologies that already existed and just furthering their evolution.... well, yeah. He is not reinventing the wheel, but his versions of the wheel kick major ass and in fairness SpaceX and Tesla have done some amazing things that have not been done before. Standing on the shoulders of his predecessors? Of course he is.if Elon Musk were Howard Hughes and Hyperloop was the Spruce Goose, this would be the equivalent of a rich recluse saying he was going to make a nuclear-powered flying boat out of leather and whalebone that would carry divisions of troops to Europe via orbital transection.
This is what I think is the biggest misunderstanding. He's not building anything. He's made that abundantly clear. He has zero intention of building the Hyperloop or any incarnation thereof. He's prompting a conversation, greasing the wheels of thought for a potential alternative to HSR. Good, let's see what does or does not come of it.
Right. But if I say "I want to build a mach 2 tunnel under Bakersfield" I'm a crazed moron. If Elon Musk does it, though, he must know something we don't, after all, he's a visionary. SpaceX and Tesla are any other startup sprinkled with money. The roadster was a Lotus Elise with an electric motor - I've built Land Rovers with electric motors, it ain't no thing. The Model S in 2013 is pretty much exactly where the GM EV1 was in 2003. As far as SpaceX, rockets aren't easy to make, but it's not like Peenemunde wasn't 70 years ago. There's some prior art there... and when you've spent $1.2 billion dollars, you're within spitting distance of the original Mercury Program. Elon Musk isn't an inventor, he's an entrepreneur. He didn't come up with Paypal, he bought it. He didn't invent the electric car, he invested in it. He didn't invent the rocket, he privatized it. And Hyperloop is orders of magnitude wonkier than anything even the craziest of crazies have thought up. It makes the Space Elevator look like a come-along.This is what I think is the biggest misunderstanding. He's not building anything. He's made that abundantly clear. He has zero intention of building the Hyperloop or any incarnation thereof. He's prompting a conversation, greasing the wheels of thought for a potential alternative to HSR. Good, let's see what does or does not come of it.
The fact that he is an entrepreneur gives me hope. Why? Because I'm no scientist, but I'm pretty good at leading teams and product development. Who knows, maybe someday I'll build a space elevator. By the way, if you had an idea for a "mach 2 tunnel under Bakersfield", I'd at least read it. You're a hell of a writer.Elon Musk isn't an inventor, he's an entrepreneur.
Perhaps why I have such an affection for the guy. There are so many other sure fire ways for him to take his piles of money and turn them in to larger piles of money. Ways that would be quicker, far less risky, have a much greater yield and even be more altruistic. If he's a crazed moron, then please let there be more of them. I get your point, which is that he gets a free pass on crazy, but that doesn't bother me one bit. -That has been earned through past successes.
...and I'm down with that. But as an entrepreneur, the path to success is to go buy lunch for some of your pet scientists and engineers and say "hey guys, I'm filthy fucking rich and I feel like building a Mach 2 tunnel under Bakersfield. What do you think?" This gives them an opportunity to say "Hey, Elon, you're dope and all and Teslas are some of the sexiest electric cars ever made, but there's a reason nobody rides around in bank tubes, despite their invention in 1836. Maybe we could, I dunno, cure cancer or start an Ekranoplan company or something instead. We're more likely to succeed and that way you don't look quite so much like a toenail collector." I suspect this happened and he was annoyed that those with half a clue told him he had none, so he went around them and said "I'm not going to invest in this (because my peeps told me it was a batshit insane idea) but somebody should (so that if it works I still get credit). It'd totally work, I ran the numbers (based on the fact that I have no expertise in this subject whatsoever). KTHXBYE." Robert Heinlein envisioned a world encircled by slidewalks. He was a hell of a writer, too, but that didn't lead to their adaptation outside of airports and subway terminals.Perhaps why I have such an affection for the guy.
By the way, if you had an idea for a "mach 2 tunnel under Bakersfield", I'd at least read it. You're a hell of a writer.
Still, it's worth having the idea out there and having people talking about it, even if to say "this is crazy... but this tangential idea isn't so crazy..." But yeah, if it were a fool proof plan, it would be called the TeslaLoop or Loop-X."I'm not going to invest in this (because my peeps told me it was a batshit insane idea) but somebody should (so that if it works I still get credit). It'd totally work, I ran the numbers (based on the fact that I have no expertise in this subject whatsoever). KTHXBYE."
-I actually don't think this is far-fetched at all, I'm inclined to agree with you. If it was worth betting on, he'd have taken that bet.
Goddamn Segways. They recently opened a shop at the hotel by the beach/harbor where tourists can rent segways. A secret spot with mostly families and some business-pleasure folk has suddenly transformed into a shitstorm of shoobies in cargo shorts. You can't skate, drive, or bike around the area without almost hitting an out-of-control segway.
I guess I'm not such a believer in Elon Musk. The dude recently bragged in a tweet about how Teslas Model S got a 5.4 star safety rating. Musk claimed this was the highest rating ever by the NHSTA. The NHSTA replied. "The public should know that the NHSTA does not rate cars beyond 5 stars, and does not rank or order cars in the star rating system. Elon Musk is, in some ways, a modern P.T. Barnum.