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thundara · 4181 days ago · link · · parent · post: A group of average citizens doing Google searches outpredict the United States intelligence community
I'm a skeptic. How much is just survivor bias with the one person in the crowd who happened to guess each event correctly?
am_Unition · 4181 days ago · link ·
If the group of "superforecasters" continued to perform on par with what the level of accuracy was that earned them admission to said group, that'd convince me.