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user-inactivated · 4158 days ago · link · · parent · post: A group of average citizens doing Google searches outpredict the United States intelligence community
Glad she acknowledges this. If it doesn't cost her anything to make incorrect predictions, stringing together correct ones isn't nearly as impressive. The top comment on NPR also mentions groupthink within the CIA -- very likely, I think. A tendency to blame the same people and look for the same causes, to impose patterns for their own sanity ... not remotely surprising.I don't have a professional reputation at stake. And it's this anonymity which actually gives me freedom to make true forecasts."