One point to the first person to guess, without research or consultation, the following three values, correct within an order of magnitude.
(1) The profit on a gallon of gasoline earned by a gas station in the U.S. during 2011.
(2) The profit on a gallon of gasoline earned by ExxonMobil on gasoline sold in the U.S. in 2011.
(3) The combined local, state and federal taxes on a gallon of gasoline sold in New York state in 2011.
It is not a simple matter to get trustworthy numbers, but the range in values I have found for these statistics is far less than the range of guesses considered correct. (By "within an order of magnitude" I mean, if the actual value is 75, correct answers must be between 7.5 and 750.)
Answers should be three numbers in U.S. dollars. The year 2011 was selected because of ease in finding data, not for anything particular about that year.
Thanks all for your guesses. I am beginning to despair of figuring out how to validate guesses, given the uncertainty in my own values, and figure out who came close enough first. I will post my "answers" here, and hope that I won't be pressed to name someone as the winner, or to defend my numbers with especial vigor. (1) The profit on a gallon of gasoline earned by a gas station in the U.S. during 2011. My number was $0.05. flagamuffin seems to have the right idea, that gasoline is mainly a way to attract people to shop for snacks, but it is not quite a loss leader. Forbes says the profit was a dime at the beginning of this year, and a nickel the year before. I don't think this number surprised me too much, but I probably would have guessed higher. I have pointed out to people that bottled water (that stuff that occasionally falls out of the sky in large volume) is more expensive at gas stations than gasoline. (2) The profit on a gallon of gasoline earned by ExxonMobil on gasoline sold in the U.S. in 2011. The "correct" number here was an astonishing $0.0033. This value is hard to verify. My number was provided by ExxonMobil for "the fourth quarter of 2011," which may be a carefully-selected time. The number goes up to eight cents for the first two quarters of 2012. I tried to do some plausibility checks based on ExxonMobil market share, gallons of gasoline sold, and reported profits, but got bogged down in all the complications. (3) The combined local, state and federal taxes on a gallon of gasoline sold in New York state in 2011. I put it at $0.656, based on the American Petroleum Institute. Another source gives $0.473 for state taxes only, and the federal tax is now $0.184. I might have guessed a bit higher, though not as high as some of the guesses here. The idea for this quiz came originally an article by that obnoxious John Stossel.
Yes, there could have been some anchoring effects, but I'm trusting you all not to research online so you should be able to keep your eyes on your own textboxes. What's with your wildly high estimate of tax, well more than half the retail price? I suppose there are arguments that it should be that high.
Well I feel partially responsible for this, so I'll do my best. 1. I believe they lose money, so technically a profit of 0. 2. Between 0 and 25 cents? I'm not entirely sure whether to approach this as gallon of gas imported, or simply a gallon of gas sold at an Exxon gas station, or whether there's a meaningful distinction. 3. Say $2. [NB: my answers were clouded by the belief that I can guess what point you are making.]
This is a problem I am not sure how to get around. By posing the question, I am unwillingly communicating the information that the question and answer will be interesting, a big clue. I should post some dull, unsurprising questions under the quiz tag to throw you off.my answers were clouded by the belief that I can guess what point you are making