I did some reasearch to see how improbable it would be for me to get a Tesla, and one thing that these articles always fail to mention is the time it takes to fully charge a battery. Take a look at this calculator for the Tesla Model S. To get the maximum range, you would have to charge this for 10 hours on a single 240V adapter, a feature that can be rare in American garages; or 5 hours on dual adapters, a feature that's definitely not common in American garages. It takes about 5 minutes to pull up to a station, pay, pump, and leave. Even with the dual chargers, it's impossible to get more than 56 miles of range in an hour of charging; or 170 miles in half an hour at a rare public super charging station. To trust a car that takes so long to get "full" can be difficult. You might say "Well, just charge it when you go to bed." As long as everything goes as planned, then it's a good plan. However, what if something goes wrong and it doesn't get charged? Let's say that you came home last night and completely forgot about getting gas. You were exhausted after a long day, so you just slumped out of the car and straight to bed. You wake up the next day, realize that you don't have enough fuel to get to work. What do you do? You rush your routine in order to squeeze a couple minutes of time in order to get gas. You roll up to the station, sit there for 5 minutes, and the problem is solved. What about a Tesla? You come home just as exhausted, and head straight to bed without plugging in the car. You wake up tomorrow and realize you don't have enough of a charge to get to work. What do you do? You could run down, plug in the car, and pray to Elon Musk that the car will get just enough of a charge to get you to work and back. However, what if you work far away? You have to just suck it up and be a couple hours late, unless you're lucky enough to have a super charging station that will get you enough charge for you to roll in maybe half an hour late. Who hasn't run their car a little low, because they forgot to get gas the night before? Maybe you're special and have an impeccable memory, and will never ever forget to charge the car. That's great. However, for many people, having to wait so long to get power can cause issues. Well, that's not enough to completely discount the car, but is still worth bringing up. Heck, even with my incompetence, i'd still take one for the right price.
One major factor I never see anyone talk about is the fact that people who live in apartments basically CAN'T charge at home. I don't have a garage, there aren't any charging ports, and I live on the third floor, where would I even plug in an electric car? I wish a Tesla would be a practical vehicle for me, or any other electric car for that matter (even though I don't care for most of them), but in my current situation they just wouldn't work, and it's a similar story for a large number of people. For now I just commute on my motorcycle when I can, which gets 50-60 mpg.
I love the idea of an electric car for about 95% of my use. My daily routine of work, errands and recreation has me driving about 30 miles per day. This is prime electric car market. A Chevy Volt could run this almost entirely on batteries, and even a Nissan Leaf could easily handle this. Occasionally I have to drive 120 miles round trip, though I'd have access to a standard charger at my destination for a few hours. A Volt would kick in the gas engine. A Leaf would be ok but would need the charge to get home. The Model S would be no problem. The remaining 5% is a hangup. Not routinely but not infrequently do I drive 150+ miles each way to a destination that has no charger access. In some cases there may be a Supercharger along the highway, in other cases there aren't. Even if there is, it adds significant time to my travel. For a trip of 2.5 hours, an additional half hour at a charger is 20% more time. I could rent a gas car, but that's also more time. I like the idea of the plug in hybrid (eg Volt) because it gets around the range and recharge issue. Lastly, I have no access to electricity at my parking spot at home. I might be able to pay to wire from my meter to my parking spot. Maybe.
Yeah, it seems like in the US market they're the perfect car, unless you want to travel. There's a few stations in my state (KY), but they're all on one route, and a weird distance apart. I used to visit family down I-65, which was a 170 mile drive just to get down there. I couldn't go visit them, because it's cutting my range really close - unless I could count on them having a charging station to plug into and wouldn't have to drive anywhere for anything. I also took a trip this summer to Gatlinburg TN, which is 280 miles one way. I would have to stop in Farragut TN, which is 20 miles in the opposite direction. Then, once I got there, I could enjoy nice time in the city. However, I would have to be pretty careful about venturing too far away, so I guess I couldn't go see the mountains and visit Cherokee on the same trip (Well, I guess I could, but I don't want to live charge-to-charge). Right now, for a person, who doesn't have the money for multiple cars or rentals, it be a bit risky for me to get a Model S. Generally, my driving is made up of trips within 20 miles of my house. If I got one today, I might be fine. However, if I'm spending $69,000 (or even the Model III's $35,000), I'm going too keep that car for a while. What if I start traveling more? What if I get a job that requires me to go more than 150 miles one way and stay in a hotel, where I won't have a way to charge? Maybe if I'm lucky, I could find a Supercharge station along the way, but what if I don't? Right now, Teslas are more for the wealthy, who want something nice to drive around their area in. They don't care if the thing can't take them more than 150 miles away, they can just take their other car; and if they don't have another car, they can just rent a car. Hopefully, as more come out, prices will go down, more stations will be built, and they will have a better range. Not routinely but not infrequently do I drive 150+ miles each way to a destination that has no charger access. In some cases there may be a Supercharger along the highway, in other cases there aren't. Even if there is, it adds significant time to my travel. For a trip of 2.5 hours, an additional half hour at a charger is 20% more time. I could rent a gas car, but that's also more time.
That's a fair concern to a certain extent but I think your example is a bit extreme and far fetched. Considering the range of over 200 miles of the Tesla Model S how often would you use the 200 miles in one day and how often would you get home with the battery flat? I would say not many people would. And if you did, by the time you arrive it'd be pretty high in your awareness the importance of plugin it in before going to sleep. I would agree though, that electric car ownership requires a change of mindset regarding charging and trip planning. But an adaptation period is true with any truly revolutionary technology. I also agree that charging times can be challenging if you're in a rush but let's remember this is an emerging technology and battery improvement is on the top of the list of manufacturers. We're a few years away from major breakthroughs, particularly if demand increases. Until then I still believe the benefits of owning an electric car currently far outweighs the downsides. Low fuel cost, low noise, low pollution, being able to charge at home ideally from your own solar panels. And if you get a Tesla you have access to their super-charger, capable of charging half battery in half an hour network for free for life. I don't see any petrol cars offering free fuel. And no I'm not a Tesla salesman, nor can I afford one, unfortunately.
The example was meant to be extreme. I have a phone that has to be charged every single night, and most nights I charge it; but there's been a time or two in my life where I have forgotten to plug it in. I was just making a worst-case scenario. Maybe traveling would be a better example. Yes, there are charging stations in every state, but only along certain roads and they're spread pretty far apart. I talked about it more in this comment, but there's times when going to a place that's passed the car's point-of-no-return would either be burdensome or impossible. I talked about visiting family that are 170 miles away and having to bank on them having a place to charge for the 5 or so hours that it would take to get me back. I took a vacation that would require me to drive 20 miles in the opposite direction in order to have enough power to get to my destination, then have to do it again on the way back. At the same time, I would have to be conscious of not venturing far from my anchor point. Unfortunately, I cannot afford a Tesla either. If their price was comparable to an average car today, and I was shopping for one, it would be hard to make that decision. On one hand, I stay pretty close to home, they're nice cars, and I like trying new tech (I even have a smart watch, which people give me shit for). At the same time, I live 20 miles from a charging station, would have to physically modify my garage (and clean it) to charge it, and would struggle to travel. The first two are solvable problems - I could just put up the cost and pay some electricians so I can charge at home; but they're still decent-sized issues. However, the traveling challenge would be cumbersome. The only thing I could do is hope that more charging stations get put up - unless I want to get a rental or buy another car. With that - I'm a person that spends $35,000 (the Model III launching in 2017) on something that I'll keep for a while. I might not be venturing far away right now, but in 5 or 10 years I might be. For a lot of people, Teslas might be an option that is viable for them, and if we ever want to get a good and affordable electric car, we better hope that they're the choice that they make. However, in their current state, they're something that I would have to pass up. That's a fair concern to a certain extent but I think your example is a bit extreme and far fetched. Considering the range of over 200 miles of the Tesla Model S how often would you use the 200 miles in one day and how often would you get home with the battery flat? I would say not many people would. And if you did, by the time you arrive it'd be pretty high in your awareness the importance of plugin it in before going to sleep.
Perhaps in your particular case a hybrid would be more suitable than a pure electric.
Can you give a modern example where the adaptation required the user to be more vigilant or more careful in order to not lose ground from before adapting the new technology? I'm struggling to think of one. Things like internet, mobile phones and smart phones added to what the user had, and failure of the technology didn't put them worse off than before, it just put them back where they were.an adaptation period is true with any truly revolutionary technology
I don't know how old you are but I remember the first first mobiles were the size of bricks and not one bit practical. I don't remember anyone at the time who believed such cumbersome tech would ever catch on. And it didn't until they became smaller and cheaper. But the phones we have today had to start somewhere to start to create a market by captivating those initial consumers. The early stages of the internet, pre DNS, websites were only accessible via IP addresses (no google or domain names) which meant you had to carry a list of server numbers in your wallet. To check your email you'd have to have Unix terminal skills. No one believed it would ever catch on beyond the techies and nerds. Not to mention the first computers which were even more archaic with programs in punch cards! The beautiful thing is, you don't have to get an electric car if you don't want to. But many people get excited about emerging tech and the idea of energy independence, which if you own a home and solar panels, an electric car makes a lot of sense. For those people the choice exists and will only get more better and more refined with time.
I wasn't referring to a technology being difficult when it was new, I was referring to when it replaces a technology and adds a difficulty. There's a clear difference between an early mobile phone being huge when society had no expectation of being able to contact a person anywhere at any time and an electric car with a limited range and longer recharge time where society expects people to have few limits to mobility. The corollary might be if early mobile phone users had to choose between a mobile phone or a land line. That wasn't the case but is with cars. I have no problem with someone buying an electric car, but I can't see how it's a routine transition with new technology.
One could argue that the mobile phone was not a new tech but an iteration of an existing tech. There were already phones and people already had a set of expectations of phones which mobiles did not meet. Being heavy and not holding charge for long were not desirable properties. The email example I gave, also fits into your category of more complicated new tech replacing incumbent popular tech. Email had plenty of shortcomings, it was not intuitive or easy to use initially. And it was not expected that it would ever become widely used. As a reminder that improved tech is often not appreciated by everyone, I leave you with a henry Ford quote relevant to the topic. The emergence of the car industry and how it was perceived relative to the main method of transportation at the time, horses:"My ‘gasoline buggy’ was the first and for a long time the only automobile in Detroit. It was considered to be something of a nuisance, for it made a racket and it scared horses."
Oh yeah, it's easily argued that early mobile phones were an iteration and extension of land lines. I don't think I ever saw the huge brick phones in the wild when they were new, but I remember the bag phones. But if the phones were like the rechargeable toys I had in the mid '80s, they took eight hours of charging to get thirty minutes of use. I didn't use email until about 1996 at which point the interface was fairly slick. I have little doubt the early years took a computer science degree to manage. I think we largely agree that early iterations of technology are routinely cumbersome. Where I think we're talking past each other is how people manage those challenges. I'm arguing electric cars are different from mobile phones and early internet (which again, I agree were cumbersome) because if you were out of range of limited cell towers or misplaced your log of IP addresses, you could still make a phone call from home or write a letter. To the user, a mobile phone or email added to the resources they had available. Most people own a single car per adult. Purchasing an electric car means giving up direct access to a gas powered car. Early mobile phone users didn't give up access to their home and office phones. Early internet users didn't give up access to the postal service or voice telephones. That's the difference I'm arguing. That's why I argue it isn't a routine transition of technology.
I get your point now. It's a fair point that electric cars have negatives that petrol cars don't have. But the opposite is also true. It's up to you to weight both up and decide if you are ready to accommodate the new tech or not. There's nothing wrong with waiting for a tech to mature a bit before jumping in. I certainly didn't buy a mobile until it fit in my pocket. Personally, having the ability to charge at home and not spewing toxic fumes as I travel is way more important than the convenience of being able to pull up at the pump around every corner. Specially knowing that range and charging will just improve with time. It's up to each of us to decide.