Today was the first round of the French Republican Primary. The results, as expected, were unexpected :

François Fillon (ex prime-minister under Sarkozy) : 44%

Alain Juppé (ex prime-minister under Jacques Chirac) : 28%

Sarkozy (ex president) : 21.1%

The polls were like this, a month ago :

Alain Juppé : 37%

Sarkozy : 33%

Bruno Le Maire : 13% (he is under 3%).

François Fillon : 10%

The second round is going to be Fillon against Juppé. It seems impossible for Juppé to win, but who knows.

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The landscape of French politics for the next Presidential election is something like this :

Mélenchon (far left) - Yannick Jadot (ecology party) - François Hollande (current president, not sure if he's going to present himself for the next election due to his popularity being really low) (left) - Emmanuel Macron (a mix between left and right, he's young) - Fillon or Juppé -- probably Fillon (right) - Marine Le Pen (far right)

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Likely results from the first round : Fillon & Marine Le Pen.

Likely results from the second round : Fillon.

We will see how it goes!