How will that ugliness manifest itself? Donald Trump. From In Conversation: Penn Jillette Talking Magic, Truth, and Trump’s Alleged Apprentice Tapes.For 50 million years our biggest problems were too few calories, too little information. For about 50 years our biggest problem has been too many calories, too much information. We have to adjust, and I believe we will really fast. I also believe it will be wicked ugly while we’re adjusting.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/13/retail-sales-in-2018-could-climb-higher-than-previously-forecast-nrf.html Which means increases in personal debt. Which means we are right back to 2007, don't it?
There are other indicators that matter more, I think. Home Depot reported earnings but when you spend at Home Depot it's generally because you're doing something to your... home... which is captured in housing. Mortgages are shitty now. So are housing starts. Neither are epically shitty but they're not ZOMG great the way CNBC wants you to believe they are. That your article links to LVMH as if it has something to do with the economy is funny. Cheapest fucking thing they own is Sephora. Second cheapest thing is like Givenchy.
Yeah I'm ambivalent on this one. On the one hand, the preponderance of evidence supports the theory that Roundup ain't great for the environment or anything in it. On the other hand, California is the place where coffee comes with a cancer warning. What the market is saying, effectively, is that Monsanto is a toxic asset... which has more to do with public opinion than anything else. I'll say this: I never heard anybody say fuckall about Roundup in ten years of working. Yesterday? Fuckin' 5 conversations along the lines of "how could they do this to us?" so the argument could be made that the judge effectively sent a fat fuckin' message.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/supreme-leader-of-iran-purges-corrupt-bankers-9lfmlcpqtIran has purged parts of its government in response to domestic unrest. Nearly 70 people, including members of the Tehran province city councils and the mayoral office in Zabol, were arrested over the weekend for corruption, smuggling and hoarding of goods. At least 100 more officials have been prohibited from leaving the country. The supreme leader and the minister of intelligence have come out in support of the purge. It would be tempting to dismiss this particular anti-corruption drive were it not for the scale. Earlier firings could be excused as a capitulation to the demands of protesters. The government’s actions over the weekend are clearly more proactive than that.
So the plummet of the Turkish lira has everybody pointing at the Thai Baht crisis of 1997. The argument is Turkey has foreign debt, if its currency devalues too much compared to foreign currency it won't be able to pay that debt, and when a whole country defaults it affects a whole bunch of industries and everyone's money goes away. A strong dollar is a different but problem (not just for Americans). It basically means that anything American becomes expensive - above and beyond any Trump tariff bullshit. Considering how much global trade is settled in dollars, moving the dollar peg moves trade pegs for everybody. Is it good? Is it bad? Well, it's a change. When the dollar is strong Americans import more but when the dollar is strong foreigners invest less.The crisis had significant macroeconomic-level effects, including sharp reductions in values of currencies, stock markets, and other asset prices of several Asian countries. The nominal U.S. dollar GDP of ASEAN fell by $9.2 billion in 1997 and $218.2 billion (31.7%) in 1998. In South Korea, the $170.9 billion fall in 1998 was equal to 33.1% of the 1997 GDP. Many businesses collapsed, and as a consequence, millions of people fell below the poverty line in 1997–1998. Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand were the countries most affected by the crisis.