It seems to me that the fundamental blunder is on MBS' part. The CIA has been pretty cozy with the Saudis ever since they were assed out of Iran in '79. That does not mean it's a respectful relationship, nor that it is one of mutual support. If I were the CIA I'd be up in MBS' business like it weren't no thang for the simple reason that he's disrupting the status quo. MBS may have underestimated the fundamental level of distrust the CIA has in South Asia, particularly when there are changes for which they are not directly responsible. And it's possible that MBS overestimated the homogeneity of the American response. Trump feels he owns MBS; MBS feels he owns Jared Kushner. In Saudi Arabia, pretty much everyone reports to MBS (outside of splinter factions leading palace intrigue); in the US, we've got that pesky "deep state" or "continuity of government" depending on your attitude. And I mean, the NSA has the world wiretapped. And I mean, the CIA is far, far better at surveillance and wiretapping than they are at kinetics. And I mean, if I were at the CIA I could absolutely make the case that US interests benefit by reigning in MBS via strategic leaks to Turkey. Not sure what ambassadors have to do with it but my armchair read of the situation is that MBS thought he could get away with it and the CIA expected to profit from reminding him that he couldn't.
The call was to the Saudi ambassador to the US: It just seems bizarrely careless.Not sure what ambassadors have to do with it
According to Selvi, CIA Director Gina Haspel “signalled” during her trip to Ankara last month the existence of the wiretapped phone call between Crown Prince Mohammed and his brother Khaled bin Salman, who is Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the United States.
Oh wow. I missed that. Yeah... On the one hand I'll bet they've got encryption. On the other hand I'll bet it was sold to them by the Americans. I mean, if you're talkin' spy gear, your two choices are American or Israeli. On the third hand I can totally see a pair of brothers being so arrogant that they don't bother using the encrypted phones.
What we know kinda makes you wonder what we don't know, doesn't it? Saudi power is not democratic. The House of Saud has called the shots since they assed out the Hashemites a hundred years ago, but it hasn't been without drama and intrigue. Meanwhile, the Khashoggis include Mohammed Khashoggi, ibn Saud's doctor; his son Adnan Khashoggi, pretty much the most baller arms dealer of the 20th century, his nephew Dodi Fayed, paramour of Princess Dianna and son of Mohammed al-Fayed, Egyptian billionaire and his other nephew, Jamal Khashoggi. He was more than a journalist, he was a member of a powerful family. That he'd become an outspoken critic of MBS says as much about power politics as it does about journalism. And MBS wants nukes. One would assume there are functionaries within the CIA that do not enjoy contemplating a fundamentalist Wahabi state prone to sponsorship of terrorism developing its own fissile material. Especially considering the number of players in the theater. It sure looks like someone tipped the Turks to put the Saudi embassy under heavy surveillance. Either that, or the Turks always have the Saudi embassy under surveillance that heavy and somehow the Saudis just never noticed. It sure looks like someone wants to implicate the United States in surveilling Saudi Arabia. Gina Haspel was a case officer in Ankara from 1990-1993 so it's not like she walked in there like a naif. Either that or a 30-year undercover case officer let slip we have the Saudis under wiretap. Meanwhile, oil is in the shitter.. Keep in mind: Saudi Arabia's budget doesn't balance unless oil is at $70/bbl. When Jamal Khashoggi walked into the embassy, WTI futures were at $76. Right now they're at $51. Why? Well, the US is overproducing. This forces Russia and Saudi Arabia to keep up. China is buying less because tariffs. I have no idea what's going on. My speculation is fueled by spy novels. But if I were the CIA and I wanted to destabilize the government of Saudi Arabia, this would certainly be an approach I'd wargame. Either that or smart people are being really, really stupid.