I've been waiting since 2008 for the GOP to implode, so I'm out of predictions, but it feels like we're coming to a head. My hope when Trump was elected was that the GOP would die, then the Democrats would split in two to reform a stable but still adversarial system. I don't love democrats by any stretch, but the incoherence of the GOP continues to exceed any reasonable expectation with every new crisis. Let's see them try to block aid to Israel on the basis that Biden will try to use the aid to turn the Israeli army into trans pedophiles or something. What a world.
You know what show I love that I shouldn't? The Crown. Know why? It's really a lengthy investigation into the collapse of the British Empire as told through powerless bystanders, like Star Wars and the droids, Hidden Fortress and the peasants, or Last King of Scotland and James McEvoy's imaginary doctor. Granted, "Elizabeth Regina" is one of the more powerful of the powerless narrators but aside from Maggie probably-not-actually asking the Queen to dissolve parliament so she could stay in power, it's pretty much about crusty old people sucking while their empire fucking collapses around their ears. I fucking love it. Fifteen years of avid history consumption has left me with a refined and educated taste when it comes to the collapse of the British Empire and while there are plenty of flashpoints to talk about, from my armchair I'm going to call out Amritsar. This is at the absolute tippy-tippy top of "the sun never sets on the" British Empire, when they were the undisputed heavyweight champions of the world, kings of all they surveyed, "My intention was to inflict a lesson that would have an impact throughout all India." It's all downhill from there. Lend/lease begging, having to spy on the Roosevelts, rationing for 15 years, Suez, British Leyland, the Falklands... collapse takes a while. Britain has been a vassal state of the US since losing Iran but they still thought they were a power twelve years after that. Shit, they still thought they were a power after the Nazis fucking leveled London. I think the GOP imploded July 21, 2016. I think that their failure to nominate anyone other than the guy none of them wanted was the Republican Amritsar. It was their foot soldiers doing what they'd been trained to do, been brought up to do, been bred to do, not what they'd been asked to do and now? We wait for the degenerates to fucking die. The fact that Josh Hawley and Tommy Tuberville continue to be Josh Hawley and Tommy Tuberville, despite the substantial detriment suffered by the GOP because of it, tells me that none of this shit is going to be over quickly. There will be a Falkland Islands conflict. There will be some form of Operation Black Buck.
I'm glad she touched on Russia, though I haven't read a lot of commentary on whether they were involved. It seems like it wouldn't be a stretch to imagine so. Clearly this plays into Russia's desire to weaken the US support for Ukraine, which will almost certainly be the case when we start shipping more arms to Israel. We appear to already to maxed out on arms shipments, so it's a zero sum game at this point. I hope that if there's any intelligence to support Russia's role that it will be leaked. It is in Biden's interest to make that connection if it's apparent. It is sad to say, but pretty much since the Arab Spring the world has been looking more and more like pre-WWI all over again.
March 23, 2023: Hamas sent high-level delegation to Moscow at Russia’s invitation October 3, 2023: Iran to trade Hezbollah arms to Moscow, Arab tribes in Syria (link may be spotty due to the fact that Israel is facing an onslaught of cyberattacks, including some tied to Russia, while battling Hamas No surprise then that (October 10, 2023) White House considers adding Ukraine to Israel aid package Meanwhile in Russia, So no surprise that three hours ago, “[Washington] tried to monopolize regulating [the conflict], but was unfortunately unconcerned with finding compromises acceptable for both sides,” Putin added. “It put forward ideas on how it should be done and pressured both sides. Each time, however, without taking into account the fundamental interests of the Palestinian people.” Putin Says U.S. Foreign Policy Failure Caused Israel-Hamas War Russia is about to be using surplus Hezbollah weaponry against Ukraine. "wouldn't be a stretch" is a rather forgiving assessment of the situation at hand in my opinion.“I think many will agree with me that this is a clear example of the failure of U.S. policy in the Middle East,” Putin said at a Kremlin meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani.
Having read about the collapse of the CIA in Legacy of Ashes and reading the Washington Post describe the CIA as the 4th largest air force in the world or some shit, I'm pretty sure the money we say we're giving to Ukraine has nothing to do with the money we're spending on Ukraine. I'd give it better than even odds that "Phoenix Ghost" is just the code name the CIA uses to pay off Musk for use of Starlink in Ukraine. At one point, 80% of the world's liquid hydrogen was in a warehouse on Burbank Avenue. And at one point, Howard Hughes was looking for Manganese nodules. So we can piss and moan about appropriations but I have absolutely zero doubt that cold-war-magnitude blank checks are being written in several hemispheres right now.
A wounded, weakened Israel is a fiercer one Someone on Twitter pointed out that there were more Jews killed yesterday than at any time since the Holocaust. I do not care to verify that allegation.
This will be their peal harbor, both in that the reprisal will be swift and strong and that eventually it will come out that they mostly knew it was coming but let it happen anyway. It’s exactly what the current government wanted and needed. My guess I was an underestimate of the effectiveness of attack, in the sense that the ruling party was looking to provoke and draw some sort of minor attack but didn’t expect one to occur at this scale. There are serious questions about how the Netanyahu government did not see this attack coming. It was either a spectacular intelligence failure or a security failure or both, and it strikes at the heart of the Netanyahu government’s promise to keep the country safe. At the same time, the attack is making Israelis rally together. The hundreds of thousands of Israelis who have been protesting Netanyahu’s strengthening hold on the government have said they would come together in this dangerous moment.