Will there be more resistance than there was before we invaded Afghanistan and Iraq? If there IS quantifiably MORE resistance than pre- Afghanistan and Iraq is it actually enough to stop Gulf War 3? If the coequal branches of government were functioning that way I might be tentatively able to think that would be enough. As it stands I don't think so. Unless the armed forces themselves refuse to go, the whole chain of command as it currently exists has no concern for soldiers within reach of truck bombs. Current evidence suggests those in charge of issuing orders to make Netanyahus wishes into military reality will do so when ordered. That's why Trump and Co gutted the generals and the JAG. that's the purpose behind doing that. I won't talk the finer points of the theology of the crazies. We agree that it's perfectly malleable to the political demands of Republicans. That's the important part. I keep my finger on their pulse because it's often predictive of the specifics of the latest stochastic terrorism. At the moment the crazies are promoting the morality and hilarity of running over Pride parades with their trucks.But there will be significant resistance to putting soldiers anywhere they are within easy reach of a truck bomb.
Fucking lol we were hella better off 20 years ago and the Dems still rubber-stamped the invasion of Iraq. If Trump wanted boots-on-ground in Iran we'd have boots-on-ground. But what would be the point? Iraq was all about mobile weapons labs and dumb shit like that; we're three days past "we took off from Elmendorf and within twelve hours the Iranian nuclear program was a smoking ruin." is it a smoking ruin? Does it matter? The only thing keeping us from doing it again is we don't currently have the inventory of MOABs (or whatever they're calling them these days). The first time you violate a nation's sovereignty is a problem but after that, it's just a job. Prolly won't even make the news, tbh. Netanyahu doesn't want boots-on-ground in Iran either. Israeli interests start and stop at Israeli sovereignty and the reason Netanyahu is grinding so deeply into this shitshow is Oct 7 showed that he fucked up royally at the ONE PRIORITY he kept harping on, which was "keep Israel safe." "Send a bunch of conscripts a thousand miles away for regime change" is a tough sell.If there IS quantifiably MORE resistance than pre- Afghanistan and Iraq is it actually enough to stop Gulf War 3? If the coequal branches of government were functioning that way I might be tentatively able to think that would be enough.
Current evidence suggests those in charge of issuing orders to make Netanyahus wishes into military reality will do so when ordered.
Well that took me aback. Your point about the relative low 'cost' of a targeted air campaign carries a lot of weight. I suppose this illustrates that I don't have a particularly clear idea of what Bibi and his cohort do want in specific material terms beyond 'Set fire to every country that funds or houses Hamas, Hesbollah, etc.'Fucking lol we were hella better off 20 years ago and the Dems still rubber-stamped the invasion of Iraq.
Netanyahu doesn't want boots-on-ground in Iran either.
"Send a bunch of conscripts a thousand miles away for regime change" is a tough sell.
If you can figure out a way to assign blame to them for something else horrific, real, fake or otherwise, I'm sure someone could manage it.
So imagine a man so hell-bent on preserving the security of Israel that he prompted the stochastic assassination of the guy who signed peace accords. Now imagine that for more than 20 years, he's been running on "I keep you safe." Imagine that he's been riding this grift for so long that his gravy train is leaking into the press and he's been legit indicted for bribery and corruption. Now imagine he's suddenly responsible for the worst failure of security in the history of the nation, and responsible for more deaths than any tragedy since the War of Independence in 1948. Your first instinct is likely "dude's chum." But then you remember how countries rally around their leaders in times of strife. Netanyahu has postponed a reckoning. If he lands this plane correctly he can sail off into the sunset without going to jail but anything short of "I made you safe again" and it will not only be bad for Netanyahu, it will be bad for Likud. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_of_Benjamin_Netanyahu#Trial Israel is proud of its conscript army and its tradition of service. That hinges on Israel's successful defense of its borders. Pacifying Lebanon or Syria is one thing; hopping a plane to Iran is quite another.I suppose this illustrates that I don't have a particularly clear idea of what Bibi and his cohort do want in specific material terms beyond 'Set fire to every country that funds or houses Hamas, Hesbollah, etc.'