- With two graduate students, Erdhardt pulled publicly available ridership and system data for 22 U.S. metropolitan areas from 2002 to April 2018 (the freshest information available) from the National Transit Database. They then conducted a regression analysis to determine which of a list of possible variables could best explain the declines. Alongside the boom in ride-hailing (from the start of market entry), they studied the effects of other likely culprits, such as fare changes, population, employment rates, the share of car-free households, the presence of bikesharing, and gas prices. All of these datapoints came from open, public sources, including the Census Bureau.
Many of these factors had some relationship to ridership trends—some positive, some negative. The introduction of Uber and Lyft fell in the latter category, Erdhardt found. In the 22 markets served by ride-hailing, ride-hailing companies were shown to further drag down boardings as they grew over time.
That effect looks slight from year to year. But added it up, it’s substantial. “After 8 years, [ride-hailing services] would be associated with a 12.7 percent decrease in bus ridership,” the study states.
I have only anecdata, but I spent $1300 on Lyft in 2016. I spent $2300 on Lyft in 2017. I spent $2050 on Lyft in 2018... in no small part because I stone-cold stopped doing anything but Lyft Line. In sampling my prices, I was dropping about $20 to get to the airport in 2016, about $30 in 2017 and about $30 for Line in 2018 because I refused to spend $40 to get to the damn airport. That's a price increase of 50% per year. As a consequence, I've gotten good at trains and buses. It takes three trains, two buses and 90 minutes to get to work when it's raining, but also only $1.75. It was worth it to spend $15 to get to work in half an hour; it's not worth $30. I raise this because my utilization of public transport went down in line with the value Lyft offered me. As Lyft's value has declined, my ridership has declined. I discovered I can get to my place in LA in 45 minutes for $1.75... and when Lyft wants $50 to do it in 40, my interest wanes. Uber and Lyft still aren't profitable. They're still subsidizing their service through VC losses. As that subsidy dries up, their utilization will go down. Anecdata of one, but after all, isn't their whole "surge pricing" model "you'll pay more when more people are using it?" Sure - it encourages drivers to get out there. But it also encourages me to ride the subway.