- Lipsitch is far from alone in his belief that this virus will continue to spread widely. The emerging consensus among epidemiologists is that the most likely outcome of this outbreak is a new seasonal disease—a fifth “endemic” coronavirus. With the other four, people are not known to develop long-lasting immunity. If this one follows suit, and if the disease continues to be as severe as it is now, “cold and flu season” could become “cold and flu and COVID-19 season.”
- Overall, if all pieces fell into place, Hatchett guesses it would be 12 to 18 months before an initial product could be deemed safe and effective. That timeline represents “a vast acceleration compared with the history of vaccine development,” he told me. But it’s also unprecedentedly ambitious. “Even to propose such a timeline at this point must be regarded as hugely aspirational,” he added.
Well... fuck.
Yeah I’m trying to figure out how to prepare but it’s unclear to me what sort of basic prep works here. Basically seems like we all go on as normal and some of us will die not much you can do. Basic service like medicine will probably get all fucked so save your antibiotics but beyond that and maybe a month of food what do you do? Maybe stop investing in real estate but it seems like the developed world might see third world death rates from this one. Areas with high birth rates might come out ok as its business as usual for them
Presume that you and your family will get the flu. Presume that the likelihood of you getting the flu from interacting with the public will go up. The ball pit is probably a no-go. The grocery store is probably fine. Minimize moshpits. Mortality mode is pneumonia. Be well-rested, be able to avoid shocks and be able to keep up your nutrition and you will likely survive. It's a virus. Antibiotics are ineffective against viruses. They are useful against secondary infection brought on by compromised immune response but in general, flu care is palliative care. Expect to get sick and expect to get better. The issue is not that the world is about to get incapacitated, it's that the world is about to go on sick leave. Might be an extended sick-leave. During the 1918 epidemic, some schools closed for a day, some schools closed for two weeks, a very select few closed for longer. https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/10.1377/hlthaff.28.6.w1066 Well now you're just being alarmist. It isn't the plague, it's like a bad case of flu.Yeah I’m trying to figure out how to prepare but it’s unclear to me what sort of basic prep works here.
Basically seems like we all go on as normal and some of us will die not much you can do.
Basic service like medicine will probably get all fucked so save your antibiotics
but beyond that and maybe a month of food what do you do?
Maybe stop investing in real estate but it seems like the developed world might see third world death rates from this one. Areas with high birth rates might come out ok as its business as usual for them
To be fair, the media is being a bit alarmist in that very few of the articles that talk about the rate of the spread also talk about severity of symptoms and how much the every day person should be concerned. The media really likes alarmism. It attracts eyeballs.Well now you're just being alarmist. It isn't the plague, it's like a bad case of flu.
It doesn’t take much to reverse a speculative trend. If all of a sudden people feel poorer, less secure and more interested in living in the burbs that might be enough to trigger a correction. On the other side are already record low interest rates that are driving prices the other way and possibly any future government incentives.
True, but it is being a bit nebulous and our imaginations tend to get the best of us when we consider the nebulous through an emotional lens. I mean, the fact that this isn't the first time I've heard similar questions during this news cycle says something. I think on the part of the media, it speaks to a lack of properly communicating perspectives and scope. On the part of us, as media consumers, I think it reflects an inability to keep our butts from getting antsy. Three of the most active articles on Hubski in as many days are on the subject, and I don't think it's because Hubski users are alarmist, but because Hubski users are thirsty for real information and it's frustratingly hard to find. Just my perspective, is all. Too be fair, I've been pretty annoyed of how the media has been dialing things up and keeping an eye out for the next big thing these past few years. So, I know my perspective has a biased tint.
The main idea is to just follow basic precautionary procedures. Minimize contact, wash your hands frequently, and don't touch your face. Excessive prep couldn't hurt but probably isn't necessary unless you're frequently interacting with an immunocompromised individual. What antibiotics do you have to save?
Hot damn. I remember having colds and thinking they were nasty - then in 2017 at the ripe old age of 27 I had my first case of actual influenza and my eyes were opened. In bed for a week, pain in my joints, absolutely drained of energy. I'd have welcomed a little case of the sniffles. The concern here in NZ is our cold and flu season is yet to start and we may enter it just as the travel restrictions ease up.
"We should all prepare now."
gotta die from something... but:within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But, he clarifies emphatically, this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses. “It’s likely that many will have mild disease, or may be asymptomatic,” he said.
What I understand: - This author has a lot of alarmist material... and this one's warranted. :I - H5N1 is the avian flu that is an analog for past disease spread, but not related to Coronavirus. Both H5N1 and Coronavirus are spread first through animals - much like Swine Flu (H1N1), Ebola, and Zika (latter two esp. through bugs). - MERS and SARS are related to Coronavirus. The strain we are hearing about on the news is COVID-19. What I don't understand: - So what is SARS-CoV-2? Is that even MORE specific to the strain on the news?And coronaviruses could present a particular challenge in that at their core they are, like influenza viruses, a single strand of RNA. This viral class is likely to mutate, and vaccines may need to be in constant development, as with the flu.
From the CDC :The virus has been named “SARS-CoV-2” and the disease it causes has been named “coronavirus disease 2019” (abbreviated “COVID-19”)
Seems like such an arbitrary pseudonym Coronavirus disease 2019 = COVID-19 Coronavirus disease 2019 = CORDIS-19 Coronavirus disease 2019 = CVD Coronavirus disease 2019 = CD-2019 Not that I'm against COVID-19 as a name, I just wonder how they picked it out of a list of equally arbitrary names
If I had to guess: - CVD got nixed because it's three syllables that all sound stupidly similar; over any sort of deprecated audio communication pathway it would have ended up being "charlie victor delta" which would have had everyone calling it "Wuhan" - CORVID got suggested (CORona VIrus Disease) until someone pointed out that it'd get called "crow flu" and someone else pointed out that half the world can't say the letter "r" I'ma guess we're going with COVID "19" because if they could back out to call SARS COVID-02 and MERS COVID-12 and COVID-14 they would. In fact, I'll wager you'll start to see that. This is our third coronavirus outbreak in 20 years so it's likely that WHO thinks they oughtta do whatever they can to keep people from calling it "Wuhan." By calling it COVID-19 there will be less freakout when we're dealing with COVID-26 (or whatever). The virus is called "SARS-CoV-2".
So — not sure if this is the right place for this question but it’s the most relevant link I see on my home feed - corona is driving NASDAQ and presumably other markets to drop. It’s fashionable or at least a publishable tactic to predict a recession whenever there hasn’t been one in the past year. In other words, everyone’s been saying for a long time the market’s going to tank. What’s great about those dire predictions is that yup! At some point they will come true! (The issue is obviously more of accuracy as to when.) I’m just wondering if anyone thinks an event like this, inciting an initial level of market uncertainty, could become a catalyst for a bigger market downturn of doom and gloom proportions? Like assuming other factors are unstable as well (hey, Iraq/Iran!). Also I’m a total layperson about stock market so I might be totally off with this. Just be nice about it if I am, k?
Marketwatch wrote an article about a month back. That's data for recent history. You could also look at what happened in 1918 with the great Flu Epidemic. But the world, and the markets, were very different back then, so while it's interesting, it's probably not a good model to look at for today's market.